With the dust beginning to settle in most states in this new post-Covid norm for leisure, aquatic and fitness venues, operators are taking stock on membership levels, assessing the proportion of members who have cancelled or are still on suspension.
With the return of these suspended members starting to look more and more unlikely, ActiveXchangeanalysis, powered by the SportsEye platform and up to date market intelligence drawn from hundreds of venues across Australia, highlights that venues are drifting toward an even greater crisis in the months ahead. Here is why…
What’s the current picture?
The following graph compares as a baseline, the number of members prior to Covid (February) with the average percentage of members who have cancelled, are still on suspension, and the similar proportion of new joiners over this period (through to September).
When we split this out by demographics we see that the highest proportion of those who have cancelled or are still on suspension are:
The SportsEye platform is helping operators focus on which groups to re-engage, how to prioritise these efforts, and how to optimise and tailor the messaging and offer, tracking across the industry what’s working best on a rolling basis. And then applying this up to date intelligence to each partner venue.
The longer-term social value cost?
The following graph compares the level of deprivation of members who have cancelled or are still on suspension with current live members. The graph highlights that those in less affluent areas are being significantly worse effected. This will have significant health and wellbeing costs, some of which will be immediate with mental health. ActiveXchange will be releasing further insight on the impact of Covid on Social Value, and how we are helping operator partners articulate this at a local level and use SportsEye intelligence to mitigate the impact across these priority communities.
Forecasting a second wave
The following graph shows the pre-Covid average member lifetime by demographic group and the 12-month membership length trend leading up to this point. The graph highlights that the older age groups have the higher lifetime values (worth most to venues), yet as we see above, these are the groups who have cancelled most or are still on suspension, and are not being replaced through the new member joiner rates. It is also these groups that generally have the highest Social Value costs to local communities and government.
SportsEye now powers advanced predictive forecasting for operators, tailored to their local circumstances.
The graphs below shows the 12-month forecast for the average industry venue, which considers joiner rate trends, cancellation and suspension trends and the trend in average member lifetime by demographic group. These factors are applied to firstly understand the likely number of members at a venue level and how this will change, and then the related impact on revenue.
Based on this forecasting in 12 months the average venue will see a reduction in 31.3% of month membership revenue, equating to 25.3% fewer members compared to pre-Covid, and importantly 10.3% fewer members than today. The highest decline from today to the end of 2020 is expected across the following demographic groups:
The action that is needed today
The SportsEye intelligence platform integrates with each venue’s membership management system and provides the following to support any venue, no matter their size or experience with data:
1. Create an accurate baseline forecast tailored to the venue which is then automatically tracked on a rolling basis;
2. Utilise the very best marketing intelligence drawn from over 3 million members, coupled with predictive modelling, aligned to your own circumstances. This drives operational decisions across programming, pricing and retention;
3. Focussed new member acquisition campaigns using up to date analysis on who, where, and when to target your prospects, and how to target marketing spend to maximise not just joiner numbers, but protect the profile of your membership and revenue levels longer term for your organisation.
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